You are put into a room with a suitcase and a flask of poison.
The suitcase has been filled either with 1 million dollar or with worthless magazines.
The poison is bad enough that you would never drink it for free, but it will not kill you. You would definitely drink it for 1 million dollar. It is going to give you a few days of headaches and feeling very ill.
Wether the suitace contains money or magazines depends on a prediction that was made by a machine. - If the machine predicts that you will drink the poison, the suitcase will contain the money - If the machine predicts that you will not drink the poison, the suitcase will be full of magazines.
From more than 10 000 past experiments, we know that the machine has 95% accuracy on both cases.
You are now in the room. The prediction has been made on you and the suitcase has been filled accordingly.
Do you drink the poison and open the suitcase ? Or do you open the suitcase right away ?
Note: This is taken from Mr Phi video serie where he discusses the NewComb Paradox
Hover to show the answer.
My understanding at this time (early 2021) is the following: As a human being, you can not make a plan and stick to it. This would mean inhibiting your rationality. This is something that, unfortunately, we can not do.
So even if you 100% plan to drink the poison, you will doubt that decision once you are in the room.
I think I am not able to stick to a plan of drinking the poison. Therefore, I think I would not drink the poison and go straight for the suitcase.
This is concluding that there is no way for me to win the money.
Someone that could inhibit his rationality and stick to a plan could win the money. Someone not thinking about it too much and going for the poison could win the money. But as soon as you think too much about it, you understand that there is no way you actually drink the poison once you are in the room.
To help explain it: - The extreme case of a transparent suitcase. In that case, everyone will have to answer that they don’t drink the poison. - The extreme case of someone that can turn off his rationality. That person will be able to stick to his plan of drinking and actually win the money. But this is not possible for a normal human being. - Look for the “fatality of rationality” for this concept.